A couple of months ago, Peyton Watson looked like a sure-fire bet to get a very large contract in free agency this summer. Numbers as high as $30 million per year. But as the offseason has progressed, that number has trended lower, and the Denver Nuggets could get luckier than first thought on the value of the contract, especially if the number Bill Simmons says comes to fruition.
Simmons said, "I don't know where that $20 million per year is coming from."
Even at $20 million a year, that's better than the $22.5 million per year Bobby Marks pegged as his prediction for Watson at four years, $90 million. Simmons pointed to Christian Braun's contract as one reason some teams could be scared to give Watson more money. Rightfully so after how that has turned out.
But even though Watson had a short run primarily in January when he turned it up a notch as a lead scorer in the wake of Nikola Jokic's knee injury, it was, as Simmons alluded to, a flash in the pan. The sample wasn't very large, but scoring 21.9 points and shooting 46.2% from three, while playing strong defense, will get you noticed.
The Nuggets would be lucky if they avoided a bidding war
Watson could be one of the more sought-after free agents this summer, and that usually comes with a hefty asking price. So it seemed appropriate to assume he would get a contract for at least what Braun signed his extension for last year, at five years, $125 million.
One likely candidate to get into a bidding war to push that value up could be the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are the hometown team for P-Wat, and they've got an owner who might not be afraid to spend into the aprons to win now.
If that happens, one scenario could be a sign-and-trade, with the Nuggets jettisoning Braun or Cameron Johnson to retain Watson. Or, maybe, the Nuggets would miss out on Watson altogether. At least they've got the final say about the restricted free agent.
Nuggets need to prioritize Watson over Braun or Johnson
Watson needs to be the starting wing for the Nuggets next season. It was painful for the Nuggets to have him on the bench in street clothes against the Minnesota Timberwolves. They missed his defense, they missed his slashing and downhill game, and he would have been one of the most athletic players on the floor for the Nuggets. It's too bad he couldn't have come back from injury in the series.
He'll be just 24 next year. He's still got a lot of time to show his January run wasn't a flash in the pan. The Nuggets just need to get lucky now to get a better deal on Watson than they thought.
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