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Peyton Watson's contract projection presents Nuggets problem hiding inside a bargain

P-Wat's going to cost the Nuggets, but they need to bring him back.
Jan 22, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) reacts to a call during the second half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images
Jan 22, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) reacts to a call during the second half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets are going to have a high priority to re-sign Peyton Watson this offseason. And as a restricted free agent, they'll at least have the final choice to decide on the contract price. One projection puts that contract at a value that seems like a near-bargain for the Nuggets.

Peyton Watson turned in a breakout season for the Nuggets, who failed to extend the fourth-year up-and-coming star at the start of the year. It's a decision that looks like it will cost the Nuggets far more than they could have paid to retain his talents at that time.

However, the projection from ESPN's Bobby Marks comes in a little lower than the average yearly value of Christian Braun, and that would be a bargain for the Nuggets. Marks projected a four-year, $90 million deal for Watson. The $22.5 million per year average is $2.5 million per year less than Braun's, and equal to Cam Johnson's for next season.

But this would also put the Nuggets deep in the second apron, where more penalties and fees would be waiting for the Nuggets.

Watson could get an even bigger deal

$22.5 million per year seems like a bargain compared to some of the numbers thrown around during the year in speculation. One projection was as high as $30 million per year. And if Braun was getting 25, surely you would think Watson should be matched or get more, given how hot his name has been linked to the Lakers this season, amongst many other teams with free agency money to use.

Watson's breakout campaign included a scorching hot month of January, where he averaged 21.9 points and 5.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. He even won an NBA Player of the Week award during the fantastic month.

Was that month a flash in the pan, or is that just the leap P-Wat made and what he can do when he needs to be a creator on the floor? If it's the latter and other teams deem that the case, the Nuggets could have to fork over closer to the $30 million-per-year number.

The Nuggets have a conundrum

It's a big conundrum for the Nuggets. They traded away Michael Porter Jr. and the $38 million and change he was owed this year to avoid the luxury tax, plus a future first-round pick, only to be right back in a spot where they could have to pay a wing $30 million a year again.

You'd also be letting go of a player you traded another player and future draft capital for. Watson fits a lot of the Nuggets' needs. They need to re-sign him. The lower the number, the better.

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