The biggest surprise of the Denver Nuggets’ season so far has been one of the biggest surprises around the entire NBA and that’s the revival of Russell Westbrook. The Lakers and Clippers each had trouble utilizing him in ways that contributed to winning and it was starting to feel like Russ’ days in the league were numbered.
In a marriage of necessity, the Nuggets signed Westbrook to a veteran minimum deal. Even at that price, the general sentiment from the NBA media was that the deal was a disaster for Denver that they’d soon regret.
But that has been anything but the case and Westbrook has proven to be one of the best signings of the offseason by any team. He has been one of the Nuggets’ best and most consistent players and has forced his way into Michael Malone’s closing lineup (and possibly starting lineup as well).
Right now, things look great, but the regular season can often be deceiving. The Nuggets’ ultimate goal is winning a title and that will mean four hard-fought series’ against excellent teams in a playoff setting.
In the playoffs, we see much more specific gameplans, adjustments, and adjustments to the adjustments. Every single possession becomes a chess match with teams trying to emphasize their greatest advantages. Conversely, teams are looking to find weaknesses and to pick at them like scabs until they come apart.
Opponents will leave Westbrook open from 3-pt line in playoffs
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, one of their biggest weaknesses is Russell Westbrook’s three-point shooting. Russ has excelled in many areas, but for a ball-dominant guard, he’s one of the least efficient volume shooters of all time.
He’s shooting just under 32% from deep this season and that’s actually slightly better than his career average of just 30.5%. Yet, despite his struggles, Russ hasn’t been shy about letting it fly, with the highest three-point attempt rate of his career by far, shooting 34% of his shots from three - that number has never been higher than 30% in a season.
This is the weakness that teams are going to target in the playoffs. They are going to gameplan to try to take away the Nuggets’ most efficient shots; the ones that come from Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. They are going to want to funnel shots to Westbrook, daring him to keep launching, and forcing Denver to live with the results or make an adjustment.
Nuggets can use Russ as cutter or put him in corner
We’ve already seen teams leave Westbrook open to double Jokic in a few games recently and that’s not going to stop. In the playoffs, it’s going to be ramped up to another level and teams will force Malone to decide if he can keep Russ in the game. As awesome as Westbrook has been the season, the Nuggets can’t accept their season ending by way of Russ' missed threes.
The Nuggets need an answer for this strategy they’ll inevitably face and luckily, they have a few options. Russ can cut or set screens as soon as his man leaves him to double-team someone else. He’s an incredible cutter and finisher around the rim and we saw Russ deploy this strategy to incredible effect in the team’s win over the Mavericks on Sunday.
A staple of the Denver Nuggets offense has become the Nikola Jokic-Russell Westbrook two-man game.
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) January 13, 2025
The wrinkle? Westbrook is cutting and scoring more off cuts than at any point in his career (9% of possessions and 1.35 PPP). He's embraced playing off Jokic, resulting in really… pic.twitter.com/2qOGQMWD0A
That’s a good option if Russ is involved in the action, running a two-man game with Jokic. But if Murray is leading the dance and Russ is in an off-ball position, cutting to space becomes more challenging and can get in the way of the action.
One area where Russ has actually strived this season has been shooting the three-ball from the corner. Just 35% of his three-point attempts come from the corners, but Russ is making them at a 47% clip. If Russ is going to be in the game late in an off-ball role, it’s essentially that he’s planted in the corner to space the floor.
Malone has to have a short leash for Westbrook
But if neither option is working, Malone has to pull the plug quickly. He can’t let Russ shoot the Nuggets out of a playoff game and must be ready to adjust on the fly. Westbrook has played his way into a big role but the playoffs are a different beast.
His role may look different and he may be used in a different capacity, and that’s okay! Even if Russ ends up being a great regular season with a smaller role in the playoffs, that would be an excellent outcome for a minimum signing. We can’t fall too in love with a story, we have to be realistic and reactive once the time comes.
Hopefully, the Nuggets press the right buttons and Westbrook keeps cooking teams like he has been doing recently. But if the magic starts to run out when the games intensify, the Nuggets can’t hesitate to cut the cord.