Best NBA prop bets today for Nuggets vs. Warriors (Keep betting Denver to lead early)

Breaking down the best NBA prop bets for the Denver Nuggets' matchup with the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State Warriors forward Kevon Looney (5) defends on Nikola Jokic.
Golden State Warriors forward Kevon Looney (5) defends on Nikola Jokic. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
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The Denver Nuggets are on the road on Thursday night on national television against the Golden State Warriors. 

Denver is 2-0 against the Warriors this season, but the team has struggled to cover the spread against Steph Curry and company. 

So, why not bet on Denver in the prop market? 

I have a couple of plays for the Nuggets – and one for a Warriors rookie – to make things even more exciting for Thursday night. 

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Let’s dive into the picks: 

Nuggets vs. Warriors best NBA prop bets

  • Denver Nuggets First Quarter Moneyline vs. Golden State Warriors
  • Brandin Podziemski OVER 18.5 points, rebounds and assists 
  • Nikola Jokic OVER 38.5 points and rebounds

Denver Nuggets First Quarter Moneyline vs. Golden State Warriors

Another day, another Nuggets first quarter bet!

Denver has the second best first quarter net rating (+15.3) in the NBA this season, and the team is sixth in net rating in the opening period on the road (+8.5). 

While this may not seem like a favorable road matchup against a Golden State team that is famous for being great at home – the numbers tell us otherwise. 

The Warriors are 10th overall in first quarter net rating this season (+2.9), but that number falls off in a huge way at Chase Center. At home, Golden State ranks 23rd in the league in net rating in the opening frame at -2.7. 

Denver won the first quarter in both of the first two meetings between these teams this season, and I see another win coming on Thursday night. 

Brandin Podziemski OVER 18.5 points, rebounds and assists 

Brandin Podziemski may not be in the starting lineup anymore, but he’s still pushing 30 minutes per game for Golden State – stuffing the stat sheet in the process. 

The rookie guard had a huge game against Denver on Christmas, putting up 13 points, nine rebounds and six assists.  

Since Nov. 30, he’s averaging 11.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game (21.9 PRA per contest). 

I love him to get back to going OVER this number at home. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 38.5 points and rebounds

Nikola Jokic has dominated Golden State this season putting up 26 points and 14 rebounds on Christmas Day and 35 points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting of the season between these teams. 

Golden State does not have the size to deal with Jokic, and rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis should have a “welcome to the NBA” moment when he gets the start tonight. 

On the season, Jokic is averaging 25.7 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. After a couple of down scoring nights, I’ll buy low on him to keep dominating Golden State.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.