The good, the bad, and the ugly: Jamal Murray's new max contract extension

Now that the initial new-car smell has worn off, it’s time to really dig into the new contract for Jamal Murray with the Denver Nuggets. This has been a real roller coaster ride as it seemed like the extension was a done deal a few months ago, then it came into major doubt and seemed like the sides may be far apart from a deal, then it got done out of nowhere.

It was a long stressful summer for Nuggets fans but no matter how you feel about the team or this contract going forward, Jamal Murray is locked up for the next five seasons. The Nuggets tacked on four years and $208 million guaranteed to keep Jamal in Denver until 2029.

The reactions to the deal were all over the map with some in the media calling this deal an overpay and others dubbing it a steal. The price tag is one thing, but if Murray is healthy and playing his best, he’s one of the best sidekicks in the league and has already proven he can be the co-star on a championship team.

Despite his troublesome injury history and recent play, Murray is still just 27 years old and should have plenty left in the tank. There’s no reason to think his best days aren’t ahead of him and this deal should become a bargain. But there are many ways this could play out over the coming years; let’s take a look at some of the most likely scenarios.

The Good: Murray stays healthy and plays like a star

The best-case scenario, and the one the Nuggets are betting on is that Murray gets healthy and lives up to his potential. Hopefully, he’s rested up and ready to come back motivated and build on the best regular season of his career last year. 

If Murray can stay on the court and take s another step in his play he can elevate to an all-star or all-NBA player for the first time and be the second star that the Nuggets need to pair with Nikola Jokic and keep the championships rolling.

If Murray plays the next few years at an all-star level and adds to his legendary playoff status, this contract will look like a major bargain.

The Bad: Murray can never get back to his 2023 form

A fear of Nuggets fans is that Murray’s body has simply been through too much and he may never get back to peak form. If this year was the beginning of the end, perhaps Murray continues to decline and struggles to stay on the court.

In the modern NBA, one of the worst things a team can do is pay max money to non-max caliber players. If Murray is just good or decent, but not great that would be devastating for the Nuggets. They would need to get some extraordinary luck to stay in contention for the next few seasons.

The Ugly: Murray’s body breaks down

The worst-case scenario for the Nuggets is that Murray is simply done and his body won’t be able to hold up going forward. If Murray is constantly out of the lineup, his salary will become one of the most disastrous in the entire league.

The Nuggets would basically be lighting a quarter of their salary cap room on fire and crippling their ability to build a competitive roster. This would be a death sentence for the team’s title window and would make it almost impossible to put enough talent around Jokic to seriously contend.