There aren’t many better predictive measures than Tim Bontemps’ NBA MVP straw poll, which has become a recurring tradition for the ESPN analyst. Bontemps now famously polls 100 prospective voters from different markets across the country, multiple times throughout the season, in hopes of creating the most accurate tool for forecasting the award.
All of the participants aren’t actually award voters in each particular season, but it’s an excellent simulation of what that group could look like, thus creating a very realistic look at how different MVP candidates stack up over the course of a season.
The first installment of the season was released just ahead of Christmas, and before Nikola Jokic’s knee injury. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the leader in that poll, but the margin was slim. He received 57 first-place votes to the Joker’s 42, and led in total points, 865-822.
The second edition of the poll for this season was released on Friday, and even with OKC slipping and SGA missing some games, his lead has grown in a big way. Jokic missed 16 straight games, and the Nuggets have looked out of sorts since his return.
As a result, Shai has opened up his lead, landing 78 first-place votes and 930 points. Jokic is still lurking in second place, but received only 18 first-place votes and 700 total points.
SGA will win MVP if he gets back on the court
The other thing is that these votes were almost certainly cast before Thursday’s update from the Thunder that Shai will miss at least another week. Since the hot start, OKC is just 17-13 in their last 30 games. If he misses much more than the next week, he’s going to be up against the 65-game minimum.
Unfortunately, Jokic and the Nuggets aren’t exactly capitalizing on the opportunity. They’ve gone 2-5 in their last seven games, and Jokic has been out of sorts in some ugly crunch time losses. Also, while he’s still technically eligible, he can only miss one more game this season, and based on the way he looked in the first game after the All-Star break, the Nuggets may be wise to rest him up and render him ineligible anyway.
This could all lead to a wild outcome if both SGA and Jokic fail to hit the 65-game mark. Cade Cunningham, Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, and Jaylen Brown were the next four players in the poll, but each of those players feels a tier below the true MVPs.
It will be a fascinating subplot to monitor for the rest of this season, that’s for sure. As great as it would be to see Jokic take home a legendary fourth MVP trophy, it’s going to take a pretty ridiculous amount of things to go right over the next couple of months.