All things considered, the Russell Westbrook experience in Denver has been outstanding. The former league MVP had washed around the past few seasons and was kicked to the curb by multiple contending teams. Russ’ value had bottomed out to the point that the Nuggets were one of the only teams interested last offseason, and they were able to sign him on a veteran minimum contract.
Still, there were many skeptics who thought that Westbrook provided negative value regardless of his contract. But this season, that certainly hasn’t been the case. He has played very well on both ends, proving to be one of their best point-of-attack defenders, while putting up numbers on offense at a somewhat efficient level.
Beyond that, he has provided things that go beyond a box score, intangibles like energy, competitive drive, intensity, veteran leadership, attitude, and more. Sure he has had some frustrating moments, but for a team that needed a lot around its star player and had limited means to upgrade, Westbrook has been a breath of fresh air.
Westbrook’s playoff shooting concerns have been well-documented
The big fear with Russ is something that we see in big games against good teams. They essentially ignore him when he doesn’t have the ball, overloading to stop Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. They force those players to pass off to Westbrook for spot-up threes and dare him to shoot, happily living with the results.
It’s a serious issue and one that should scare Nuggets fans. Knowing that playoff games and series’ could come down to a few late-game, uncontested jumpers from Russ is a bit horrifying, but it’s a reality. If Russ is on the floor, that’s going to happen. But we’ve seen him knock down enough open shots and find ways to make an impact as a screener or a cutter.
It’s definitely a scary proposition, but there are ways to mitigate the risk. This was a known risk when the Nuggets signed Westbrook in the first place, and the fact that he’s played well enough to be considered as part of the closing lineup in the playoffs means it was worth the gamble.
Westbrook needs to get his turnovers under control
The shooting concerns are nothing new and this is a problem the Nuggets have been working on all season. But a new problem has popped up recently, one that is much less expected and far harder to reckon with; Westbrook is turning the ball over like a madman lately.
Whether he’s in the closing lineup or not, he has provided great value all season running the offense for stretches, especially when Jokic or Murray is off the floor. That has been his familiar role for most of his career, and what he can do with the ball in his hands is what made him an MVP and future Hall of Famer.
But over the past few games, he has been beyond careless. He has turned the ball over at least 5 times in four of his past five games, including a 9 turnover clunker in the team’s loss to Portland last week. He has only turned the ball over fewer than 4 times twice in the past 10 games. He has been reckless and sloppy with the ball and it’s really hurting the team.
This has to change and prove to be a little blip on the radar or Westbrook’s spot in the playoff rotation will be in serious jeopardy. An inefficient shooter mixed with a turnover machine is a recipe for disaster against a good team and even brief stretches of that in a playoff game could completely derail a team.
This is a terrifying predicament to be facing with just a handful of games left in the regular season. It’s probably too late for the Nuggets to really pivot and they don’t have many other options. They will almost certainly have to rely on Russ for heavy minutes and a big role, but if he continues playing like this, they’re in a world of trouble.