Before the Denver Nuggets ended the 2025-26 regular season on a 12-game win streak and finished one game ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers and two games ahead of the Houston Rockets in the final Western Conference standings, it was looking like the seeding would come down to a head-to-head tiebreaker. It didn't. But once again, the West is looking tough and every game matters. The difference between home-court advantage and going on the road between the 4 and 5 seeds could come down to one game against an opponent for that tiebreaker.
That's why it's critical for the Nuggets to not only win as many games as possible, of course, but also to come out ahead of these three conference foes when the final horn sounds on the regular season in April.
1. The Minnesota Timberwolves
Dec. 28th at home, Dec. 31st away, Jan. 27th away, March 7th at home
At the top of the list is the somewhat new-look Minnesota Timberwolves, who made an offseason splash by trading for Lonzo Ball to take over at point guard for the injured Donte DiVincenzo. Of course, the Nuggets were bounced by the Wolves in the first round of the playoffs, but it came as a shock after having defeated them 3-1 in the regular season last year. It was even more shocking that they were able to stifle Nikola Jokic so much with the "Stifle Tower" Rudy Gobert.
Jokic had quite the regular season against them, and there's no reason he can't do that again. Sure, his 35.8 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 11.3 assists in the four meetings were aided by the 56-point, 16-rebound, 15-assist explosion on Christmas. But that just shows how critical the adjustments the Timberwolves made in the playoffs were. The Nuggets have had time to adjust now, too, and we'll get to see how that transpires in the first meeting between the two rivals on Dec. 28th at Ball Arena.
2. The Houston Rockets
Nov. 9th away, Nov. 20th at home (NBA Cup), Feb 14th away
The Nuggets were 2-1 against the Rockets in 2025-26 and carried the tiebreaker. However, the matchup against the Rockets looks to be quite a bit more difficult this season. The Rockets have added defensive specialist Marcus Smart from the Lakers, and they'll be getting starting point guard Fred VanVleet back after missing all of 2025-26 with a torn ACL. Plus, they've still got Kevin Durant as the lead scoring option, and the Rockets are bringing back mostly the same rotation.
The Rockets are projected to win 46.5 games this season after winning 52 last season. That seems like a low total given the improvements, and the Rockets will likely be a difficult matchup for the Nuggets. And because of the NBA Cup format, it's still possible for the Nuggets to face the Rockets one more time if neither advances to the knockout rounds.
1. The Los Angeles Lakers
Dec. 19th at home, Dec. 23rd away, Feb. 12th away, Feb. 26th at home
The Lakers may have taken the tiebreaker from the Nuggets by a 2-1 advantage in their favor last year, but they've got a whole new look going into 2026-27. LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Deandre Ayton are the big names out. Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, and Sandro Mamukelashvili are in. Luke Doncic and crew will be a formidable foe once again. And with Kessler, the Lakers will have a more feared inside defensive presence than last year. The Lakers should be a difficult matchup once again.
The end-of-season head-to-head tiebreaker isn't always used. But it's always good to have it against your closest opponents. If the Nuggets can win all three matchups, they should be able to secure another homecourt advantage in a first-round playoff series once the regular season wraps up.
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