Which Denver Nuggets players can we trust when playoff pressure hits?

What will the Denver Nuggets playoff rotation look like when the NBA playoffs tip off later this month?

I think it’s fairly safe to lock in the starting five of Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic — assuming full health. The Nuggets’ starters have played the seventh-most minutes together of all five-man units this year, and their net rating ranks second among the groups sharing at least 396 minutes of court time, at +10.2.

The first two players off the bench feel obvious to me at this point in the season: Russell Westbrook and Peyton Watson. After that, only Michael Malone knows what will happen. While the defense has slipped a bit this year, the Nuggets still possess one of the league’s most potent offenses. And with the starters all regaining health ahead of the stretch run, Denver is rounding into form at the right time.

During the 2023 championship run, Malone consistently played eight players throughout the 20-game triumph: Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, MPJ, AG, Jokic, Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and Braun. Unfortunately, no one on this year’s roster has seized Bruce’s 26.5 minutes per game role ahead of the postseason.

If seasons past are an indicator, the Nuggets need to find at least one more consistent contributor to the playoff rotation to muster a deep run. But who can we trust when it matters most?

Championship Mettle or Fool’s Gold?

Denver needs to determine who on the roster is a 16-game player heading into this postseason. I’ve ranked every player on a scale from 1 (completely untrustworthy) to 10 (rock-solid dependable).

Triangle of Trust

Nikola Jokic: 10

The three-time MVP remains unstoppable, averaging nearly a 30-point triple-double this season. The big fella’s true shooting percentage of 66.2% is impressive for someone shooting 41.6% from three on more than 4.5 attempts per game, so even though his defense has lagged moderately, Jok more than makes up for it on the other end. Our Serbian sensation is top-3 in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game. Couldn’t trust Big Honey more.

Jamal Murray: 9

The Blue Arrow has shaken off injury concerns and a brutal start to the season, reclaiming his status as the jelly to Jokic’s peanut butter. Murray is averaging career bests with 21.6 points and 1.4 steals per game, appearing to move better on both ends in recent months.

Throughout the current golden era, the Nuggets have gone as their second star goes. Will Mal remain one of the league’s top playoff risers when the playoffs tip off? My confidence remains high.

Aaron Gordon: 8.5

After his first playoff run in Denver, Gordon vowed to improve his basketball I.Q. and fully embraced his role as Jokic’s ideal front-court partner. How many times since then have we seen Gordon flush the finale-oop off of the Jokic-Murray two-man action?

Even better, Gordon is the team’s deadliest three-point shooter this year. Will the torrid shooting continue? If so, opposing coaches might not be able to leave him alone on the perimeter during the playoffs.

The big question surrounding Mr. Nugget: Can AG handle backup center minutes as he’s done in postseasons past, given his calf injury? Assuming AG recovers his defensive excellence vital to the 2023 run, that versatility on both ends makes him indispensable and highly trustworthy.

The Essential Supporting Cast

Michael Porter Jr.: 7.5

MPJ persists as one of the team’s most polarizing players. His 6’11” frame and sweet shooting stroke (18.2 PPG on 39.8% from three) make him a potent third option, but his defensive lapses endure as the source of entirely too many Malone rage timeouts.

Even worse, the book on defending the Nuggets’ offense outside of Jokic demands physical play that forces officials to call fouls — a tact MPJ has struggled with. So, if MPJ’s not splashing outside shots, his value to the team plummets.

Which Mike shows up in the postseason: the one who averaged nearly 23 PPG on 55.3%/48.8%/76.9% shooting and 8.4 RPG in round one against the Lakers last year or the one who registered just 10.7 PPG on 37.1%/32.5%/76.9% shooting and 5.7 RPG against Minnesota in the ensuing round?

Christian Braun: 7

The third-year wing has established himself as one of the league’s most improved players, bringing infectious energy and athleticism. A fast-break menace, Braun’s highest true shooting percentage by a guard this season underscores his blossoming offensive value. CB loses points because his on-ball defense and willingness to shoot open threes trail that of 2023-24 KCP, but his hustle is never in question.

Russell Westbrook: 6

Russ’s offseason addition brought much-needed energy and playmaking to Denver’s backcourt. His 13.4 PPG, 6.2 APG and 5.1 RPG with the Nuggets show he can still stuff the stat sheet, while his 1.5 steals per game provide defensive disruption — even if he gambles a bit more than I prefer.

Westbrook slides here because his questionable decision-making contributes to bricking wide-open shots and occasional turnover sprees (3.3 per game) that make him a liability in critical moments. Look no further than Russ’ brutal sequence in 2OT on Tuesday against the Timberwolves as an example of his confounding play:

When Russ is good, he’s electrifying. But when he’s bad … well, there’s a reason the Nuggets were able to sign him for the veteran’s minimum. Love him or hate him, Brodie certainly represents the Nuggets’ X-factor this postseason.

Peyton Watson: 6

As previously noted, I think P-Wat has cemented his status in the playoff rotation. Watson’s defensive ceiling towers over other options on the roster (2.7 blocks per 100 possessions), but his offensive game remains a work in progress despite recent flashes (12.0 PPG on 57.4% true shooting over the last six games).

We can trust Watson’s athleticism, but his inexperience in high-leverage situations makes him somewhat of a wild card. I really wish Malone found more time for P-Wat in last year’s playoffs so we had a better handle on what to expect this spring.

The Question Marks

Zeke Nnaji: 5.5

Nnaji has shown considerable improvement this season with his increased — albeit sporadic — opportunity. His shooting touch (47.6% from three since the All-Star break) and defensive switchability have made him a more reliable backup big, but his 8.4% rebounding rate could certainly improve. Regardless, Nnaji’s floor spacing and ability to switch on defense give him more trustworthiness than we all thought at the beginning of the year.

Can Nnaji absorb some of the bench big minutes while Jokic takes a break this postseason? Will the fourth-year forward play alongside AG during those stints? We shall see.

Jalen Pickett: 5

The second-year guard has shown flashes of potential in limited minutes, exploding for a 17/11/10 triple-double against San Antonio on Wednesday and averaging 3.9 PPG and 2.2 APG while shooting 39.5% from three on the year.

His 4.5 assist-to-turnover ratio demonstrates solid decision-making for a young player. However, his overall inexperience (644 career minutes played) suggests he might not be ready for high-pressure playoff scenarios. Might Moach turn to Pickett in periods when Russ struggles? Trusting Pickett in the postseason outside of matchup dependence feels a bit premature to me given the depth options in front of him — and potential chemistry concerns around benching a former MVP.

DeAndre Jordan: 4

Shout out to DJ for staying ready throughout this season. The veteran big provides locker-room leadership, as well as the occasional dunk and rim protection (1.3 blocks per 36 minutes), but his defensive mobility has largely disappeared. And his 41.3% free-throw shooting is abysmal.

Can he spell Jok for even a few minutes per game this postseason? If Jordan is playing many meaningful playoff minutes, I’d guess Jokic is either in foul trouble, Malone doesn’t trust Zeke or something has gone horribly wrong.

Julian Strawther: 4

Strawther’s recent knee injury (suffered in the March loss against Boston) has made his playoff availability extremely doubtful despite recent encouraging developments. Prior to the injury, he showed improved shooting prowess (35.7% from three on more than four attempts per game) but remained tremendously one-dimensional.

His -4.5 Box Plus/Minus when healthy is concerning and underscores his negative impact on the defensive end. Despite having good size, Strawther’s targeted on defense a lot. Even if he makes a miraculous recovery in time for a deep playoff run, trusting a rusty Strawther for instant offense or to adequately defend when every possession matters is a proposition likely to disappoint.

Play in Case of Emergency

Vlatko Cancar: 2.5

The Slovenian forward returned from his midseason knee surgery and showed flashes of his utility. Posting 1.2 points and 3.5 rebounds per game over his last six outings, Cancar’s value lies in his basketball IQ and positional versatility. His career 35.4% three-point shooting could help with spacing, but his postinjury defensive mobility (career-worst -1.4 Defensive Box Plus/Minus this year) and lack of high-leverage playoff experience call his trustworthiness into question.

I’d be surprised if Cancar sees much more than garbage-time minutes during the playoffs.

Dario Saric: 1

Remember when we thought Saric was a promising stretch big with playmaking upside this summer? Good times. In Denver, he’s barely cracking the rotation. His shooting (career 36% from three) is theoretically useful, but when you’ve only seen the floor 15 times for the Nuggets, how much trust can you really inspire? If he sees playing time in the playoffs, the Nuggets will almost certainly be up or down by 20.

Hunter Tyson: 1

Tyson sees minimal action, averaging 2.4 points in 7.6 minutes per game, but his time in the G League last year suggests shooting potential (40.8% on over nine attempts per game). But without significant impact on either end, my trust in his potential impact remains low.

The three two-way players are ineligible and DaRon Holmes remains out for the playoffs, so I did not include any of them in this list.

Do the Nuggets Have the Right Ingredients?

The Nuggets’ roster construction remains fascinating — two unquestionable superstars surrounded by a supporting cast that ranges from reliably solid to wildly unpredictable. Denver’s playoff fortunes will hinge not on the continued brilliance of Jokic and Murray but on whether Malone trusts the other rotation players to elevate their play when it matters most.

Since Russ and P-Wat are likely first off the bench, I’d assume Zeke or DJ provide front-court depth while seeing less AG as a backup center. With Strawther likely sidelined and questions about Westbrook’s playoff reliability, Denver’s guard depth will be tested too. Will Pickett get any run? Whomever he trusts, Malone will need to navigate his playoff rotation carefully for the Nuggets to make another deep run.

One thing’s for certain: In Jokic we trust. Almost everyone else will have to earn it one possession at a time.