The Denver Nuggets aren't there yet, but if they aren't careful, they're going to end up in the same boat as the Milwaukee Bucks after their NBA championship win in the 2020-21 season. But hopefully, they learn the lesson before it's too late. It's almost too late, but not quite yet. However, it could be a lot closer than anyone wants to admit.
The Nuggets have already gone backward in the playoffs after winning their first NBA championship during the 2022-23 season. Fast forward three seasons, and the Nuggets were just bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Minnesota Timberwolves.
By their third year after winning the championship, the Bucks were already losers in the first round two years in a row. It got worse from there, and they even had to part ways with their franchise cornerstone, Giannis Antetokounmpo, this offseason to truly start the rebuild process.
The Nuggets have already committed some of the same mistakes
It all started for the Bucks when they dealt away future draft capital to acquire Jrue Holiday in 2020. Holiday was the missing piece of the puzzle, and the Bucks won the title that year. But they handcuffed themselves in future trades and in future depth without that draft capital.
Doesn't this sound familiar to Nuggets fans? The Nuggets are finally realizing they should start to rebuild their own draft capital, so at least they've learned that from the Bucks.
But another thing the Bucks did was sign their championship-winning rotation to big extensions and started paying some large fines for violating the NBA's luxury tax threshold. They went backward in the playoffs before finally being unable to field a competitive enough roster this past year and missing out on the playoffs entirely. All while paying more in luxury tax fines in some seasons than the Nuggets have in their entire history.
The Nuggets are on the verge of this situation this year. They currently have two open roster spots and are on pace for a tax bill that stands at approximately $68.6 million, and are currently unable to add any free agent on anything other than a minimum contract, severely impacting the team's ability to upgrade the roster.
The Nuggets will need to make a major trade. Hopefully it's not Joker
The Bucks eventually started trading away their expensive pieces. But the damage was done by that point. Without young talent coming in and the payroll way out of shape, the Bucks decided to rebuild with the Giannis trade. He had always said he wanted to stay with the Bucks, but the Bucks used the two-time MVP and defensive stalwart to finally start the rebuilding process.
The Nuggets will unfortunately have to make a major trade at some point to get their finances back under control. The NBA's roster construction rules are difficult above the NBA's second apron threshold, where the Nuggets currently reside.
It would be awfully painful if that trade were ever Nikola Jokic. Joker has said repeatedly that he wants to stay in Denver. If he signs his contract extension with the Nuggets next summer like he has said, he'll have a good chance of accomplishing that, as it would come with a no-trade clause. So at least there's that, but the Nuggets would still likely need to trade someone else for draft capital at some point.
The Nuggets need to learn from the mistakes of the Bucks over the years, or they're just going to end up like the Bucks sooner rather than later. That's going to be a painful process, and it feels like it could already be underway.
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