The likely outcomes have been spelled out regarding Peyton Watson's restricted free agency. And the longer this process drags out, the more it looks like the Denver Nuggets forward has to feel like he backed himself into a corner. Or he got poor advice that put him there. Either way, it's increasingly looking like the Nuggets could be holding onto Watson.
The Nuggets may have lowered their asking price to a "first-round pick and a high-level player," but that still means the team acquiring Watson will have to take on his salary. And as ESPN's Brian Windhorst laments on the newest Hoop Collective podcast, that's much easier said than done this far into the process.
"I'm just like, my friends, my good friends, I love you all in the in the media. The Bucks have $10 million below the tax. They're not going into the tax," Windhorst said.
It increasingly looks like Watson won't get what he wants
The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the biggest rumored suitors for Watson, but $10 million isn't what Watson wants. He wants the Christian Braun $25 million-per-year range, or more. Obviously, that's a huge sticking point for any team that Watson is trying to negotiate with. And so far, there haven't been rumors of any offer, either.
And the two other rumored suitors, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Los Angeles Clippers, have their own problems. The Cavs are currently waiting to re-sign James Harden to his extension so that they can have more room to maneuver below the apron. But once they sign Harden, they'll be in the same boat as the Nuggets, looking to duck under the second apron.
The Clippers have the cap room, but they're potentially stymied by the Kawhi Leonard saga. We don't know when the trade that sent him to the Toronto Raptors will be completed, and that's keeping the Clippers in flux, too.
The Nuggets need to keep the relationship in good standing
The problem moving forward will be the gap between what Watson wants, how he feels about himself and his play, and what the Nuggets think of him. We know they value him for more than the qualifying offer, but they used a low-ball starting point for cap-space reasons. Realistically, if he signs the QO for $6.5 million, taking a massive bet on himself, that would probably mark the end of the relationship once the season has run its course.
My hope is that the Nuggets can sign Watson to a comfortable deal for both sides. But that still likely means another trade could be in the works to get the Nuggets back under the second-apron penalty threshold.
Unfortunately, it's only the middle of August, and we probably have a long way to go before this situation gets resolved.
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