The range on Peyton Watson's contract is all over the place. From an average value of as low as perhaps $17 million per year from Bill Simmons, and up to $30 million per year, in line with Christian Braun's average. And now an NBA insider thinks that number could be as high as $30 to $35 million per year. As if it wasn't going to be hard enough for the Nuggets to avoid the luxury tax, those few extra million will make it even tougher should they choose that route.
Jake Fischer sounded pretty confident of that number, and he thinks a contract like Braun's is "the floor" for Watson. And it very well may be after the out-of-nowhere month of January Watson had.
But at that price, Watson becomes Aaron Gordon on the salary cap hit, for someone who has a similar injury profile. Unfortunately, at the north end of that projection, it gets tough for the Nuggets to retain Watson without some serious changes and a double-take.
Watson's health is a concern for that much money
Watson was fantastic as he started and took on a lead-scoring role while Nikola Jokic was sidelined with a knee injury. And Watson is a terrific defender on the perimeter, and gets a fair share of blocks for a wing. Two vital needs for the Nuggets this offseason.
But he played only 54 games for the Nuggets this year and missed the entire first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves due to a recurrence of a prior hamstring injury. And in 2024-25, Watson played just 68 games, missing time due to a knee injury.
Sure, injuries happen, but if we're comparing apples to apples, it would seem prudent to mention the injury history when the projected salary comes in at the same range as Gordon, who has his own well-documented injury history. And some have clamored for his trade simply because he can't stay healthy.
It becomes a much tougher decision to keep Watson at $35 million
If the Nuggets would even consider trading Gordon, then they need to consider not bringing back Watson at $35 million or more per year. Yes, he's still just 24, and Gordon will be 31 next year, but Gordon's the low-post presence the Nuggets need to go against someone like Victor Wembanyama over the next couple of years.
As Bill Simmons said, we saw a few great weeks from Watson while Jokic was out. We needed to see more of him with the regular starting unit to get a better feel for just how special Watson is when he's not serving as the co-lead scorer in a depleted lineup.
Keeping Watson at this price, plus ducking the luxury tax, could result in trading Gordon and Cameron Johnson. If Watson does come in at the north end of the projection, the Nuggets need to do a double-take about their plans.
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